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If you want fantasy takeaways on every free-agent signing, FantasyPros has got you covered. Major signings will get their own articles. This is where we’ll compile fantasy takeaways for lesser signings. We’ll also have an IDP article assessing the impact of notable defensive signings.
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The Lions have bolstered their RB situation and poached a division rival in the process, signing ex-Bear David Montgomery to a three-year deal worth $18 million, including $11 million in guaranteed money, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
Montgomery will presumably fill the role that Jamaal Williams played for Detroit last season, taking a lot of the early-down snaps. Williams turned that gig into a fantasy bonanza in 2022, racking up a league-high 17 TD runs. But Williams’ touchdown luck would be nearly impossible to replicate, as 13 of those 17 TD runs were 1- or 2-yarders. – Pat Fitzmaurice
For more on the David Montgomery signing: “David Montgomery to Lions: Fantasy Football Impact”
Four days after positioning themselves to obtain their quarterback of the future by trading for the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft, the Carolina Panthers secured a quality backup QB by agreeing to terms with Andy Dalton on a two-year deal, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. Dalton, a 12-year veteran, should make a fine mentor for whichever young quarterback the Panthers select with the top pick in the draft. If Carolina bypasses polished QB prospects C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young for either of the super-toolsy but less refined QB prospects, Anthony Richardson or Will Levis, Dalton could serve as the Panthers’ starter for much of the season while the rookie observes and learns. Dalton started 14 games for the Saints last season and was efficient if unspectacular, completing a career-high 66.7% of his passes, averaging 205.1 passing yards per game and 7.6 yards per pass attempt, and throwing 18 TD passes and nine interceptions. Despite all the grief Dalton took for his postseason failures during his nine-year run with the Bengals, he’s been a capable NFL quarterback for a long time and should be a good fit for a team that needed a veteran presence in the QB room. – Pat Fitzmaurice
The New York Jets signed free agent WR Allen Lazard to a four-year, $44 million deal with $22 million guaranteed, sources told Jordan Schultz from the @thescore. The move bolsters an already talented Jets WR room. More importantly, it’s another attempt to entice QB Aaron Rodgers to come to New York via trade.
The signing also reunites Lazard with former Packers offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. Hackett recognizes Lazard’s strengths as a run blocker and red-zone threat, so that will likely be his primary role on his new team. Lazard will have spike week potential in the form of touchdowns, but I don’t anticipate consistent production or a steady receiving role as a beta receiver in the Jets offense. Lazard might not even be the real-life No. 2 pass-catching option — competing with the likes of Elijah Moore and the tight ends — putting him in back-end fantasy WR4-5 territory.
In 2022, Lazard finished the season as the WR36 in points per game and as the WR33 overall despite high-end usage. He finished seventh in the NFL in targets of 20-plus air yards (28) and 17th in red zone targets while commanding a team-high 20% target share. The big-bodied wideout just failed to convert his elite usage into consistent production, which ties back to his mediocre talent profile. He’s a “fine” wide receiver, but hardly a difference-maker.
It was very apparent that Lazard was no longer the alpha in the Green Bay passing game when rookie Christian Watson was a healthy and active participant in the lineup. In Weeks 1-9, Lazard averaged nearly 13 fantasy points per game. In Weeks 10-17, Lazard notched just 6.5 fantasy points per game. His 6-5, 227-pound frame will get him playing time in New York, but Lazard still won’t be anything more than an ancillary piece of a passing game unless injuries strike a player like Garrett Wilson. Lazard’s favorable fantasy usage likely won’t carry over to Gang Green amid their other weapons — not even with Lazard’s built-in chemistry with Aaron Rodgers. As previously stated, Lazard will have some usable weeks because Rodgers has peppered him targets in advantageous situations in the past. But such games will be few and far between. Still, Lazard is a solid value at WR62 in early best-ball ADP.
I don’t think Lazard drastically impacts Moore, as Lazard will likely be operating in what was Corey Davis‘ snap share. Moore should be the full-time slot receiver with Braxton Berrios no longer on the roster. I expect Davis to be released in the coming days for salary cap reasons. Simply put, if Moore doesn’t rebound after a horrible sophomore season, Lazard won’t be the root cause. – Andrew Erickson
As RB landing spots go, it doesn’t get much better than Philadelphia. The Eagles were the fourth run-heaviest team in the league last season, running the ball on 49.7% of their offensive snaps. Eagles running backs averaged 21.6 carries per game in 2022. The Eagles earned the third-best run-blocking grade from PFF last year and ranked sixth in Football Outsiders’ run-blocking metric. With one of the best rosters in the league, Philadelphia will have a lot of favorable, run-heavy game scripts. Can the oft-injured Rashaad Penny stay healthy? That’s unknowable. But what we do know is that he’s been effective when healthy, averaging 6.2 yards per carry over the last two seasons. Penny won’t have the Philadelphia backfield to himself, but a committee role is probably a good thing for a player who’s had trouble staying healthy. An early-down role in a high-powered offense should still be enough to make Penny a fantasy RB3 in 2023 and a compelling option in the middle rounds of drafts. It should also be noted that the Eagles re-signed Boston Scott, who’ll continue to play a supporting but fantasy-irrelevant role in the Philly backfield. – Pat Fitzmaurice
For more on the Rashaad Penny signing: “Rashaad Penny to Eagles: Fantasy Football Impact”
Raiders trade Darren Waller to Giants
The Giants needed to provide QB Daniel Jones with pass-catching help, and since an overhaul of their WR position is probably a multi-year project, a deal for one of the better pass-catching tight ends out there made sense. The Giants’ WR corps is among the worst in the league, and in a year with a weak group of free-agent receivers and a so-so class of rookie receivers, an adequate restocking of the WR room is going to take more than a single offseason – especially after the Giants had to cough up big money to keep Jones and RB Saquon Barkley in the fold. – Pat Fitzmaurice
For more on the Darren Waller trade: “Darren Waller Traded to Giants: Fantasy Football Impact”
Raheem Mostert proved last year at age 30 that he still has plenty left in the tank to be a viable fantasy asset. He set career highs in carries (181) and rushing yards (891) while playing 16 games. Mostert was the RB29 in fantasy points per game, with six weeks as an RB2 or higher in fantasy. Mostert returns to South Beach on a team-friendly two-year deal. With El Jefe heading back to Miami as well, don’t expect Mostert at his age (and with his injury history) to be a workhorse in 2023. That doesn’t mean Mostert can’t be a serviceable fantasy option again in 2023. Last year he was extremely efficient with his workload, ranking sixth in yards after contact per attempt (minimum 100 carries per PFF), fourth in PFF’s elusive rating, and 22nd in breakaway run rate. Last year Miami was only 17th in red zone scoring attempts per game. With hopefully a full season of Tua Tagovailoa under center and the aerial fireworks that Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle can muster, there will be even more scoring opportunities for Mostert and this backfield in 2023. Mostert is an RB3/4 with upside. – Derek Brown
Houston has made another addition to its WR room, agreeing to terms with Noah Brown on a one-year contract less than a week after bringing in Robert Woods on a two-year deal. Brown posted career-high numbers across the board in 2022, with 43 catches for 555 yards and three touchdowns. Brown hadn’t caught more than 16 passes in any of his four previous seasons. He had a couple of noteworthy games for the Cowboys last season, with a 5-91-1 performance vs. the Bengals in Week 2 and a 6-49-2 day vs. the Jaguars in Week 15. Brown played 74% of the Cowboys’ offensive snaps last year, the 31st-highest snap share among all NFL receivers. It was probably too big a role for Brown, an ordinary pass catcher whose best attribute might be his blocking. The 27-year-old Brown doesn’t figure to be a high-volume receiver for the Texans, and he’s unlikely to have much of a fantasy impact unless the Houston receivers get hit by a tidal wave of injuries. – Pat Fitzmaurice
Josh McDaniels took another step today in making the Raiders “Patriots west” as they inked Jakobi Meyers to a three-year deal. This is a welcome addition to a Raiders’ wide receiver room that was looking thin outside of Davante Adams and Hunter Renfrow (Mack Hollins is a FA). The dominoes might not be done falling though as this could also signal a Renfrow departure. Renfrow can be cut and the Raiders can save 1.5 million against the cap. The likeliest outcome is that Renfrow remains in Vegas this year and is cut bait next year when the team can save 8.2 million against the cap next year by kicking him to the curb. – Derek Brown
For more on the Jakobi Meyers signing: “Jakobi Meyers to Raiders: Fantasy Football Impact”
Looking to shore up their problematic QB positions, the Falcons agreed to a two-year deal with Taylor Heinicke that could be worth up to $20 million, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. Heinicke, an Atlanta native, returns to his hometown after making 24 starts for Washington over the last two seasons. Heinicke was functional but unspectacular in his run as a starter, completing 64% of his passes over the last two years, averaging 7.0 yards per attempt, and throwing 32 TD passes and 21 interceptions. The announcement of the Heinicke signing came the day before his 30th birthday. He’s clearly not the Falcons’ quarterback of the future, but Heinicke could compete with second-year man Desmond Ridder for the starter’s job, or potentially keep the seat warm for a few games if the Falcons draft a rookie quarterback and opt to bring him along slowly. – Pat Fitzmaurice
The Texans aren’t sure who their starting quarterback is going to be in 2023, but they’ve identified their backup. Houston has agreed to a two-year deal with 10-year veteran Case Keenum. The Texans are expected to take a quarterback with the No. 2 overall pick in the NFL Draft, so Keenum will be backing up a rookie. It’s possible Keenum could start the first few games of the season if the Texans decide their rookie signal-caller isn’t ready to play right away. Some of the top quarterbacks in this year’s draft are likely to be starters from Day One (C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young), but some might serve an apprenticeship on the bench before sliding into the starter role at some point during the season (Anthony Richardson, Will Levis).
Keenum was a full-time starter for the Vikings in 2017, going 11-3 in his regular-season starts and throwing a 61-yard TD pass to Stefon Diggs on the final play of the game to give the Vikings a playoff victory over the Saints in the “Minneapolis Miracle” game. Keenum also started 16 games for the Broncos in 2018 and made eight starts for Washington in 2019. Keenum now comes full circle, having started his NFL career with the Texans in 2013. For his career, Keenum has completed 62.3% of his passes and averaged 6.8 yards per attempt, with 78 TD passes and 48 interceptions. He’s a solid veteran backup who, if forced to make starts for the Texans, would be streamable in favorable matchups. – Pat Fitzmaurice
The Miami Dolphins hope they have their long-term quarterback in Tua Tagovailoa, but with Tua having sustained multiple concussions in 2022, the Dolphins need a premium insurance policy. They bought one in free agency, signing ex-Jet Mike White to a two-year deal that could be worth up to $16 million, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. White made seven starts and eight appearances for the Jets over the last two years. completing 62.2% of his throws and averaging a respectable 7.0 yards per pass attempt. White was a turnover machine in 2021, throwing eight interceptions in 132 pass attempts, but he trimmed his interceptions rate from an unwieldy 6.1% in 2021 to a more reasonable 2.3% in 2022, when he threw four INTs in 175 attempts. White turns 28 later this month and won’t ever be considered a long-term solution to a team’s QB problem, but he’s proven himself a capable NFL backup, and the Dolphins were happy to sign him away from a divisional rival. If Tua were to go down in 2023, White would steer a Miami offense that features the dynamic WR duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, making White a stream-worthy QB for fantasy purposes. It’s possible White will become a hot waiver wire commodity at some point during the 2023 season. – Pat Fitzmaurice
Broncos sign QB Jarrett Stidham
Stidham signs a two-year deal with Denver to back up Mr. Unlimited, Russell Wilson. Stidham got a two-game cup of coffee with the Raiders last year, which is the most starting exposure he’s had in the NFL to this point. Everyone will recall his fantastic game against the 49ers, where he tossed for 365 yards and three scores, logging an 80.9 PFF passing grade. We can safely say this one game alone earned him this backup contract. The next week, Stidham turned back into a pumpkin with 6.1 yards per attempt and a 44.3 PFF passing grade. Stidham will be the locked-in QB2 on the Broncos’ roster, with Brett Rypien likely gone. If we see Stidham under center this year, things have gone horribly wrong for Wilson. Stidham is worth a bench spot in superflex dynasty leagues, and that’s it. – Derek Brown
Falcons trade for TE Jonnu Smith
Jonnu Smith is headed to Dirty Bird country to be reunited with Arthur Smith, as the Falcons acquired Smith in exchange for a seventh-round draft pick. Smith fills a need for Atlanta as a depth piece behind Kyle Pitts with TEs MyCole Pruitt and Anthony Firkser hitting the free-agent market. Before this move, Atlanta was looking to lean on Parker Hesse and possibly TE convert Felipe Franks to pick up snaps behind Pitts. Smith arrives in Atlanta after two disappointing seasons in New England, where he could only carve out target shares of 8.9% and 10.2%. That doesn’t mean that Smith wasn’t productive on a per-target basis.
Smith ranked inside the top 20 in yards per route run and YAC per reception in both seasons in New England. He was also eighth and first in target per route run rate, drawing a target on 28% to 31% of his routes, so when Smith was on the field over the last two years, he drew targets at an elite level. All of his underlying metrics scream that the talent New England yearned for when signing him still remains. The Patriots simply didn’t utilize Smith, which could be tied to his putrid run-blocking scores. Smith has finished dead last in PFF’s run-blocking grade (minimum 200 run-blocking snaps) in each of the last two seasons. While Smith has never been a top-shelf run-blocking tight end, these were easily the worst two seasons of his career in this aspect. Smith should team with Pitts as the inline tight end (Smith 60.5% inline for his career) while Pitts mostly lines up in the slot or outside (only 23% inline during his career). Atlanta ranked third last year in the usage of two-TE (or more) sets. Unless this is a precursor for an impending Kyle Pitts trade, the talented Smith will be a lowly TE2/TE3 in 2023. – Derek Brown
Las Vegas Raiders sign QB Jimmy Garoppolo
Jimmy Garoppolo is heading to Sin City to nestle into Derek Carr‘s vacated throne. Garoppolo is coming off a season where he ranked 21st in PFF passing grade, fifth in yards per attempt, and 17th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 150 dropbacks per PFF). Garoppolo remains just a glorified point guard. – Derek Brown
For more on the Garoppolo signing: “Jimmy Garoppolo to Raiders: Fantasy Football Impact.”
Check out these other breakdowns of major moves:
Other notable free agency news
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